EIA forecast · United States · forecast track record

What EIA projected, and what actually happened

Every Annual Energy Outlook since 2015 has projected US power demand and the fuel mix, and utilities and regulators plan against it. Here each edition's Reference case meets what actually happened. Projections: AEO Tables 8, 9 and 16. Actuals: Monthly Energy Review, Electric Power Annual and STEO, with final 2025 retail sales from EIA-861 (released 7 October 2026); 2025 generation and capacity are still preliminary. There was no AEO2024.